A formalism for describing and simulating systems with interacting components.

This thesis addresses the problem of descriptive complexity presented by systems involving a high number of interacting components. It investigates the evaluation measure of performability and its application to such systems. A new description and simulation language, ICE and it's application to performability modelling is presented. ICE (Interacting ComponEnts) is based upon an earlier description language which was first proposed for defining reliability problems. ICE is declarative in style and has a limited number of keywords. The ethos in the development of the language has been to provide an intuitive formalism with a powerful descriptive space. The full syntax of the language is presented with discussion as to its philosophy. The implementation of a discrete event simulator using an ICE interface is described, with use being made of examples to illustrate the functionality of the code and the semantics of the language. Random numbers are used to provide the required stochastic behaviour within the simulator. The behaviour of an industry standard generator within the simulator and different methods of number allocation are shown. A new generator is proposed that is a development of a fast hardware shift register generator and is demonstrated to possess good statistical properties and operational speed. For the purpose of providing a rigorous description of the language and clarification of its semantics, a computational model is developed using the formalism of extended coloured Petri nets. This model also gives an indication of the language's descriptive power relative to that of a recognised and well developed technique. Some recognised temporal and structural problems of system event modelling are identified. and ICE solutions given. The growing research area of ATM communication networks is introduced and a sophisticated top down model of an ATM switch presented. This model is simulated and interesting results are given. A generic ICE framework for performability modelling is developed and demonstrated. This is considered as a positive contribution to the general field of performability research

Fine particle pH and sensitivity to NH3 and HNO3 over summertime South Korea during KORUS-AQ

Using a new approach that constrains thermodynamic modeling of aerosol composition with measured gas-to-particle partitioning of inorganic nitrate, we estimate the acidity levels for aerosol sampled in the South Korean planetary boundary layer during the NASA/NIER KORUS-AQ field campaign. The pH (mean ± 1σ = 2.43 ± 0.68) and aerosol liquid water content determined were then used to determine the chemical regime of the inorganic fraction of particulate matter (PM) sensitivity to ammonia and nitrate availability. We found that the aerosol formation is always sensitive to HNO3 levels, especially in highly polluted regions, while it is only exclusively sensitive to NH3 in some rural/remote regions. Nitrate levels are further promoted because dry deposition velocity is low and allows its accumulation in the boundary layer. Because of this, HNO3 reductions achieved by NOx controls prove to be the most effective approach for all conditions examined, and that NH3 emissions can only partially affect PM reduction for the specific season and region. Despite the benefits of controlling PM formation to reduce ammonium-nitrate aerosol and PM mass, changes in the acidity domain can significantly affect other processes and sources of aerosol toxicity (such as e.g., solubilization of Fe, Cu and other metals) as well as the deposition patterns of these trace species and reactive nitrate

Secondary organic aerosol production from local emissions dominates the organic aerosol budget over Seoul, South Korea, during KORUS-AQ

Organic aerosol (OA) is an important fraction of submicron aerosols. However, it is challenging to predict and attribute the specific organic compounds and sources that lead to observed OA loadings, largely due to contributions from secondary production. This is especially true for megacities surrounded by numerous regional sources that create an OA background. Here, we utilize in situ gas and aerosol observations collected on board the NASA DC-8 during the NASA–NIER KORUS-AQ (Korea–United States Air Quality) campaign to investigate the sources and hydrocarbon precursors that led to the secondary OA (SOA) production observed over Seoul. First, we investigate the contribution of transported OA to total loadings observed over Seoul by using observations over the Yellow Sea coupled to FLEXPART Lagrangian simulations. During KORUS-AQ, the average OA loading advected into Seoul was ∼1–3 µg sm−3. Second, taking this background into account, the dilution-corrected SOA concentration observed over Seoul was ∼140 µgsm−3ppmv−1 at 0.5 equivalent photochemical days. This value is at the high end of what has been observed in other megacities around the world (20–70 µgsm−3ppmv−1 at 0.5 equivalent days). For the average OA concentration observed over Seoul (13 µg sm−3), it is clear that production of SOA from locally emitted precursors is the major source in the region. The importance of local SOA production was supported by the following observations. (1) FLEXPART source contribution calculations indicate any hydrocarbons with a lifetime of less than 1 day, which are shown to dominate the observed SOA production, mainly originate from South Korea. (2) SOA correlated strongly with other secondary photochemical species, including short-lived species (formaldehyde, peroxy acetyl nitrate, sum of acyl peroxy nitrates, dihydroxytoluene, and nitrate aerosol). (3) Results from an airborne oxidation flow reactor (OFR), flown for the first time, show a factor of 4.5 increase in potential SOA concentrations over Seoul versus over the Yellow Sea, a region where background air masses that are advected into Seoul can be measured. (4) Box model simulations reproduce SOA observed over Seoul within 11 % on average and suggest that short-lived hydrocarbons (i.e., xylenes, trimethylbenzenes, and semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility compounds) were the main SOA precursors over Seoul. Toluene alone contributes 9 % of the modeled SOA over Seoul. Finally, along with these results, we use the metric ΔOA/ΔCO2 to examine the amount of OA produced per fuel consumed in a megacity, which shows less variability across the world than ΔOA∕ΔCO

Understanding and improving model representation of aerosol optical properties for a Chinese haze event measured during KORUS-AQ

KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM2.5, often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m2 g−1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (f(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm−3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm−3) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation

Secondary organic aerosol production from local emissions dominates the organic aerosol budget over Seoul, South Korea, during KORUS-AQ

Organic aerosol (OA) is an important fraction of submicron aerosols. However, it is challenging to predict and attribute the specific organic compounds and sources that lead to observed OA loadings, largely due to contributions from secondary production. This is especially true for megacities surrounded by numerous regional sources that create an OA background. Here, we utilize in situ gas and aerosol observations collected on board the NASA DC-8 during the NASA-NIER KORUS-AQ (Korea-United States Air Quality) campaign to investigate the sources and hydrocarbon precursors that led to the secondary OA (SOA) production observed over Seoul. First, we investigate the contribution of transported OA to total loadings observed over Seoul by using observations over the Yellow Sea coupled to FLEXPART Lagrangian simulations. During KORUS-AQ, the average OA loading advected into Seoul was similar to 1-3 mu g sm(-3). Second, taking this background into account, the dilution-corrected SOA concentration observed over Seoul was similar to 140 mu g sm(-3) ppmv 1 at 0.5 equivalent photochemical days. This value is at the high end of what has been observed in other megacities around the world (20-70 mu g sm(-3) ppmv(-1) at 0.5 equivalent days). For the average OA concentration observed over Seoul (13 mu g sm(-3)), it is clear that production of SOA from locally emitted precursors is the major source in the region. The importance of local SOA production was supported by the following observations. (1) FLEXPART source contribution calculations indicate any hydrocarbons with a lifetime of less than 1 day, which are shown to dominate the observed SOA production, mainly originate from South Korea. (2) SOA correlated strongly with other secondary photochemical species, including short-lived species (formaldehyde, peroxy acetyl nitrate, sum of acyl peroxy nitrates, dihydroxytoluene, and nitrate aerosol). (3) Results from an airborne oxidation flow reactor (OFR), flown for the first time, show a factor of 4.5 increase in potential SOA concentrations over Seoul versus over the Yellow Sea, a region where background air masses that are advected into Seoul can be measured. (4) Box model simulations reproduce SOA observed over Seoul within 11% on average and suggest that short-lived hydrocarbons (i.e., xylenes, trimethylbenzenes, and semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility compounds) were the main SOA precursors over Seoul. Toluene alone contributes 9% of the modeled SOA over Seoul. Finally, along with these results, we use the metric Delta OA/Delta CO2 to examine the amount of OA produced per fuel consumed in a megacity, which shows less variability across the world than Delta OA/Delta CO

Secondary organic aerosol production from local emissions dominates the organic aerosol budget over Seoul, South Korea, during KORUS-AQ

Organic aerosol (OA) is an important fraction of submicron aerosols. However, it is challenging to predict and attribute the specific organic compounds and sources that lead to observed OA loadings, largely due to contributions from secondary production. This is especially true for megacities surrounded by numerous regional sources that create an OA background. Here, we utilize in situ gas and aerosol observations collected on board the NASA DC-8 during the NASA–NIER KORUS-AQ (Korea–United States Air Quality) campaign to investigate the sources and hydrocarbon precursors that led to the secondary OA (SOA) production observed over Seoul. First, we investigate the contribution of transported OA to total loadings observed over Seoul by using observations over the Yellow Sea coupled to FLEXPART Lagrangian simulations. During KORUS-AQ, the average OA loading advected into Seoul was ∼1–3 µg sm^(−3). Second, taking this background into account, the dilution-corrected SOA concentration observed over Seoul was ∼140 µgsm^(−3) ppmv^(−1) at 0.5 equivalent photochemical days. This value is at the high end of what has been observed in other megacities around the world (20–70 µgsm^(−30) ppmv^(−1) at 0.5 equivalent days). For the average OA concentration observed over Seoul (13 µg sm^(−3)), it is clear that production of SOA from locally emitted precursors is the major source in the region. The importance of local SOA production was supported by the following observations. (1) FLEXPART source contribution calculations indicate any hydrocarbons with a lifetime of less than 1 day, which are shown to dominate the observed SOA production, mainly originate from South Korea. (2) SOA correlated strongly with other secondary photochemical species, including short-lived species (formaldehyde, peroxy acetyl nitrate, sum of acyl peroxy nitrates, dihydroxytoluene, and nitrate aerosol). (3) Results from an airborne oxidation flow reactor (OFR), flown for the first time, show a factor of 4.5 increase in potential SOA concentrations over Seoul versus over the Yellow Sea, a region where background air masses that are advected into Seoul can be measured. (4) Box model simulations reproduce SOA observed over Seoul within 11 % on average and suggest that short-lived hydrocarbons (i.e., xylenes, trimethylbenzenes, and semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility compounds) were the main SOA precursors over Seoul. Toluene alone contributes 9 % of the modeled SOA over Seoul. Finally, along with these results, we use the metric ΔOA/ΔCO_2 to examine the amount of OA produced per fuel consumed in a megacity, which shows less variability across the world than ΔOA∕ΔCO

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

The role of neuroticism in startle reactions to fearful and disgusting stimuli. Pers Ind Diff. 29:1077–1082. 648 S. Cornell Kärnekull et al

Abstract It has frequently been observed that negative moods potentiate the startle re¯ex to unexpected, threatening stimuli. However, recent work from our laboratory suggests that this eect relates primarily to the emotion of fear or anxiety, while stimuli which evoke powerful feelings of disgust can in some circumstances inhibit the startle re¯ex. In this study we reanalyse data from 42 subjects in whom eyeblink amplitudes to an auditory probe were measured whilst viewing emotionally arousing ®lm clips. Classifying the negative ®lm clips into separate categories of``frightening'' vs``disgusting'' revealed a previously undetected interaction with EPQ Neuroticism. High N subjects showed greater startle reactions than low N subjects under fearful conditions but low N subjects showed greater startle when disgust was evoked. This suggests that Neuroticism may increase vigilance where evasive action is possible but promote emotional blunting when escape is not an option.